In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.

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In response to the underutilization of energy and insufficient flexible operation capability of rural energy supply systems in China,this study proposes an optimal dispatch approach for a rural multi-energy supply system (RMESS)considering virtual energy storage (VES).First,to enable the flexible utilization of rural biomass resources and the thermal inertia of residential building envelopes,this study constructed VES-I and VES-II models that describe electrical-thermal and electrical-gas coupling from an electrical viewpoint.Subsequently,an RMESS model encompassing these two types of VES was formulated.This model delineates the intricate interplay of multi-energy components within the RMESS framework and facilitates the precise assessment of the adjustable potential for optimizing RMESS operations.Based on the above models,a day-ahead optimal dispatch model for an RMESS considering a VES is proposed to achieve optimal economic performance while ensuring efficient energy allocation.Comparative simulations validated the effectiveness of the VES modeling and the day-ahead optimal dispatch approach for the RMESS.

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Multi-energy microgrids (MEMG)play an important role in promoting carbon neutrality and achieving sustainable development.This study investigates an effective energy management strategy (EMS)for MEMG.First,an energy management system model that allows for intra-microgrid energy conversion is developed,and the corresponding Markov decision process (MDP)problem is formulated.Subsequently,an improved double deep Q network (iDDQN)algorithm is proposed to enhance the exploration ability by modifying the calculation of the Q value,and a prioritized experience replay (PER)is introduced into the iDDQN to improve the training speed and effectiveness.Finally,taking advantage of the federated learning (FL)and iDDQN algorithms,a federated iDDQN is proposed to design an MEMG energy management strategy to enable each microgrid to share its experiences in the form of local neural network (NN)parameters with the federation layer,thus ensuring the privacy and security of data.The simulation results validate the superior performance of the proposed energy management strategy in minimizing the economic costs of the MEMG while reducing CO2 emissions and protecting data privacy.

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The increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaics (DPVs)and electric vehicle charging stations in low-voltage distribution networks (LVDNs)has resulted in challenges such as distribution transformer overloads and voltage violations.To address these problems,we propose a coordinated planning method for flexible interconnections and energy storage systems (ESSs)to improve the accommodation capacity of DPVs.First,the power-transfer characteristics of flexible interconnection and ESSs are analyzed.The equipment costs of the voltage source converters (VSCs)and ESSs are also analyzed comprehensively,considering the differences in installation and maintenance costs for different installation locations.Second,a bilevel programming model is established to minimize the annual comprehensive cost and yearly total PV curtailment capacity.Within this framework,the upper-level model optimizes the installation locations and capacities of the VSCs and ESSs,whereas the lower-level model optimizes the operating power of the VSCs and ESSs.The proposed model is solved using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm with an elite strategy (NSGA-II).The effectiveness of the proposed planning method is validated through an actual LVDN scenario,which demonstrates its advantages in enhancing PV accommodation capacity.In addition,the economic benefits of various planning schemes with different flexible interconnection topologies and different PV grid-connected forms are quantitatively analyzed,demonstrating the adaptability of the proposed coordinated planning method.

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To analyze the additional cost caused by the performance attenuation of a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEMEL)under the fluctuating input of renewable energy,this study proposes an optimization method for power scheduling in hydrogen production systems under the scenario of photovoltaic (PV)electrolysis of water.First,voltage and performance attenuation models of the PEMEL are proposed,and the degradation cost of the electrolyzer under a fluctuating input is considered.Then,the calculation of the investment and operating costs of the hydrogen production system for a typical day is based on the life cycle cost.Finally,a layered power scheduling optimization method is proposed to reasonably distribute the power of the electrolyzer and energy storage system in a hydrogen production system.In the up-layer optimization,the PV power absorbed by the hydrogen production system was optimized using MALTAB+Gurobi.In low-layer optimization,the power allocation between the PEMEL and battery energy storage system (BESS)is optimized using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II)combined with the firefly algorithm (FA).A better optimization result,characterized by lower degradation and total costs,was obtained using the method proposed in this study.The improved algorithm can search for a better population and obtain optimization results in fewer iterations.As a calculation example,data from a PV power station in northwest China were used for optimization,and the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed optimization method were verified.

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Renewable energy has garnered attention due to the need for sustainable energy sources.Wind power has emerged as an alternative that has contributed to the transition towards cleaner energy.As the importance of wind energy grows,it can be crucial to provide forecasts that optimize its performance potential.Artificial intelligence (AI)methods have risen in prominence due to how well they can handle complicated systems while enhancing the accuracy of prediction.This study explored the area of AI to predict wind-energy production at a wind farm in Yalova,Turkey,using four different AI approaches:support vector machines (SVMs),decision trees,adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS)and artificial neural networks (ANNs).Wind speed and direction were considered as essential input parameters,with wind energy as the target parameter,and models are thoroughly evaluated using metrics such as the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE),coefficient of determination (R²),and mean absolute error (MAE).The findings accentuate the superior performance of the SVM,which delivered the lowest MAPE (2.42%),the highest R² (0.95),and the lowest MAE (71.21%)compared with actual values,while ANFIS was less effective in this context.The main aim of this comparative analysis was to rank the models to move to the next step in improving the least efficient methods by combining them with optimization algorithms,such as metaheuristic algorithms.

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To accommodate wind power as safely as possible and deal with the uncertainties of the output power of winddriven generators,a min-max-min two-stage robust optimization model is presented,considering the unit commitment,source-network load collaboration,and control of the load demand response.After the constraint functions are linearized,the original problem is decomposed into the main problem and subproblem as a matrix using the strong dual method.The minimum-maximum of the original problem was continuously maximized using the iterative method,and the optimal solution was finally obtained.The constraint conditions expressed by the matrix may reduce the calculation time,and the upper and lower boundaries of the original problem may rapidly converge.The results of the example show that the injected nodes of the wind farms in the power grid should be selected appropriately;otherwise,it is easy to cause excessive accommodation of wind power at some nodes,leading to a surge in reserve costs and the load demand response is continuously optimized to reduce the inverse peak regulation characteristics of wind power.Thus,the most economical optimization scheme for the worst scenario of the output power of the generators is obtained,which proves the economy and reliability of the two-stage robust optimization method.

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In light of the growing integration of renewable energy sources in power systems,the adoption of DC microgrids has become increasingly popular,due to its simple structure,having no frequency,power factor concerns.However,the dependence of DC microgrids on cyber-networks also makes them susceptible to cyber-attacks.Potential cyberattacks can disrupt power system facilities and result in significant economic and loss of life.To address this concern,this paper presents an attack-resilient control strategy for microgrids to ensure voltage regulation and power sharing with stable operation under cyber-attack on the actuators.This paper first formulates the cyber-security problem considering a distributed generation based microgrid using the converter model,after which an attack-resilient control is proposed to eliminate the actuator attack impact on the system.Steady state analysis and root locus validation illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is demonstrated through simulation results.

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As the number of power terminals continues to increase and their usage becomes more widespread,the security of power systems is under great threat.In response to the lack of effective trust evaluation methods for terminals,we propose a trust evaluation model based on equipment portraits for power terminals.First,we propose an exception evaluation method based on the network flow order and evaluate anomalous terminals by monitoring the external characteristics of network traffic.Second,we propose an exception evaluation method based on syntax and semantics.The key fields of each message are extracted,and the frequency of keywords in the message is statistically analyzed to obtain the keyword frequency and time-slot threshold for evaluating the status of the terminal.Thus,by combining the network flow order,syntax,and semantic analysis,an equipment portrait can be constructed to guarantee security of the power network terminals.We then propose a trust evaluation method based on an equipment portrait to calculate the trust values in real time.Finally,the experimental results of terminal anomaly detection show that the proposed model has a higher detection rate and lower false detection rate,as well as a higher real-time performance,which is more suitable for power terminals.

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The reliability analysis of vertically integrated protection devices is crucial for designing International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)61850-based substations.This paper presents the hardware architecture of a four-inone vertically integrated device and the information transmission path of each function based on the functional information transmission chain of protection devices,measurement and control devices,merging units,and intelligent terminals.Additionally,a reliability analysis model of the protection device and its protection system is constructed using the fault tree analysis method while considering the characteristics of each module of the vertically integrated device.The stability probability of the protection system in each state is analyzed by combining the state-transfer equations of line and busbar protection with a Markov chain.Finally,the failure rate and availability of the protection device and its protection system are calculated under different ambient temperatures using a 110 kV intelligent substation as an example.The sensitivity of each device module is analyzed.

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